The Display Actors Guild Awards occurred on Sunday night time — the primary of the guilds to offer out their large prizes this season. The guilds — your Display Actors Guild, but additionally your Administrators Guild and your Producers Guild and your Writers Guild — make significantly fascinating predictors of Oscar season (not like, as an example, the Golden Globes), as a result of they’re chosen by a few of the similar voters. That may make guild awards stable predictors, or at the least as stable as any. As an example, earlier than Parasite gained what was initially thought-about a longshot greatest image Oscar two years in the past, it picked up a win on the SAG Awards, and that is when its win for greatest image began to appear to be a shot that was not fairly so lengthy.
So what can we take away from Sunday night time’s wins?
1. Right here comes Squid Sport. The South Korean drama collection a couple of sport that provides members the possibility to get out of debt or actually die making an attempt gained large in tv drama: Lee Jung-jae and Jung Ho-yeon gained for lead actor and actress, and the present’s stunt ensemble gained of their class as nicely. (The SAG Awards are one of many solely locations the place stunt performers are honored, a regrettable omission elsewhere that was famous by my colleague Glen Weldon in a current lament concerning the Oscars.)
When the Emmys come round within the fall, will Squid Sport handle to beat out the lauded Succession, the solid of which gained final night time’s ensemble award? It is all the time laborious to know when recognition — hotness, if you’ll — goes to translate into awards recognition. Early indicators for Squid Sport (and thus Netflix) are good, however Succession continues to be a beast, and it had an excellent third season. Ought to be a very good combat.
2. CODA is getting some good momentum. CODA, the crowd-pleaser a couple of younger lady named Ruby on the point of depart for school (or not), gained the award for its ensemble — the closest factor the SAG Awards need to greatest image. And Troy Kotsur, who performs Ruby’s father, gained the supporting actor award. Notice that Kotsur was the primary deaf actor to win a solo SAG award, and the solid was the primary predominantly deaf solid to win.
This is a facet notice about Troy Kotsur and CODA: I used to be lately watching an episode of Meals Community’s The Nice Meals Truck Race, as you do, and the folks engaged on one of many meals vans have been overcome after they have been visited by Marlee Matlin, whom they (appropriately and fairly) went gaga over. They didn’t, nonetheless, pay any consideration to the man who was together with her. That man was Troy Kotsur, present Oscar frontrunner.
The movie has been on a little bit of a roller-coaster: When it got here out at Sundance, it was lauded and bought for a ton of cash; hopes have been excessive. However perhaps as a result of it bought to Apple TV, nonetheless a service that does not have the attain of one thing like Netflix, and perhaps as a result of its theatrical launch got here in August, when theatrical attendance was nonetheless fairly rickety, it appeared to fade a little bit within the public consciousness.
Till lately, it felt to me — this, admittedly, is my extraordinarily unscientific intestine intuition — that greatest image would in all probability go to both Energy of the Canine or Do not Look Up, but it surely’s simple to wonder if CODA would possibly sneak in there. A crowd-pleaser does, in any case, typically please simply sufficient of the gang.
3. Will Smith could also be shut. Will Smith has been nominated for Oscars twice earlier than, for The Pursuit of Happyness and Ali. A few of his different performances have felt, for lack of a greater phrase, awards-y, however haven’t been nominated: your Concussion, your Seven Kilos, and so forth. This yr, he is nominated for King Richard. He is already gained the Golden Globe — however as we have mentioned prior to now, that does not let you know a lot. Now, nonetheless, he is gained the SAG Award, which advances the notion that we could also be wanting on the Will Smith Oscar yr.
4. Your film does not need to be an enormous knockout so that you can win. Full disclosure: The Eyes of Tammy Faye continues to be on my Oscar spreadsheet as “To Watch,” not as “Watched.” However that movie was nominated for simply two Oscars: Jessica Chastain for greatest actress and the movie’s make-up and hairstyling. It is not an enormous haul, and the critiques have been what we’d name good-not-great. Nonetheless, Chastain gained the SAG on Sunday, and like Will Smith, she’s on her third Oscar nomination. But when she beats out, on Oscar night time, Nicole Kidman, Olivia Colman, Kristen Stewart and Penélope Cruz? That is an enormous win for a film that has not essentially been outstanding this season.
5. It is an Ariana DeBose world. Ariana DeBose gained for West Facet Story on Sunday, persevering with — as a few people famous — a talent pipeline from Fox’s actuality present So You Assume You Can Dance. However extra immediately, DeBose is simply on an enormous roll, and whereas there aren’t numerous “rising star” tales anymore the place all people appears to assume the individual is simply luminous and fabulous, she’s acquired what looks like a particularly excessive approval score at this level. She’s additionally the primary Latina actress and the primary overtly queer lady of coloration to win for movie. When you’re in search of a very good story this Oscar season, look no additional.